The race for the Ballon d’Or is entering arguably its most crucial period, with major summer international tournaments – Euro 2024 and Copa America – set to play a huge role in who gets their hands on football’s most prestigious individual accolade.
Just look at years gone by, with the likes of Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo and Luka Modric winning it after shining on the international stage.
We do expect to see a Real Madrid player get their hands on the award, following their Champions League victory at Wembley, but things could be set to change depending on what happens in the coming weeks.
While Los Blancos boast multiple contenders competing against one another at Euro 2024 and the Copa America.
With all that being said, and judging everything that’s happened this season so far, we’ve put together a top 10 power rankings of which names we expect to see fighting for the Ballon d’Or come the glitzy Paris ceremony in late October.
10. Cristiano Ronaldo (=)
Hear us out. Ronaldo’s fifth Ballon d’Or in 2017 was almost certainly his last. Almost certainly.
The 39-year-old has scored over 40 goals in 2023-24, which is more than any other player in world football. Of course, that’s out in Saudi Arabia, where he failed to win the league title for a second successive year.
To be blunt, he could’ve scored a hundred goals in the Saudi Pro League and that wouldn’t be enough to be in the running.
But Ronaldo continues to lead the line for Portugal. The all-time top goalscorer in the history of international football has a chance of captaining his country to a second European Championships.
It’s been a strange Euro 2024 so far for Ronaldo, who was praised for unselfishly assisting Bruno Fernandes against Turkey but is yet to score himself – looking cartoonishly exasperated after spurning chances in their 2-0 defeat to Georgia.
He’ll have to step things up considerably in the knockout stages. But Portugal are looking pretty good, and if they win Euro 2024, expect to see a campaign ramp up for Ronaldo to get his mitts on a sixth golden ball.
9. Federico Valverde (NEW)
The ridiculously energetic Uruguayan looks like he’s following Luka Modric’s path of people saying he’s under-rated so often that it’s no longer true. Still, among the superstars he plays alongside at Real Madrid, his vital contributions do sometimes get overlooked.
That’s not quite the case at international level, where Valverde takes centre stage as a leader for Uruguay, a picture-perfect ideal of Marcelo Bielsa’s dream player.
Uruguay have made a decent start to the Copa America. Having beaten both Brazil and Argentina in World Cup qualifying, they might even be the best South American side right now, with Valverde their best player.
Unfortunately he’s probably not a glamorous enough sort of player to seriously be considered for the Ballon d’Or, but if he can follow up the Champions League with the Copa America he really should be in the mix.
8. Florian Wirtz (↓1)
The last player to win the Ballon d’Or without playing in the Champions League was Michael Owen back in 2001. The Englishman enjoyed an extraordinary 2000-01 campaign, shining for Liverpool as they claimed the UEFA Cup, FA Cup and League Cup.
Still, Owen was also somewhat fortunate that there were no international tournaments that year and Champions League winners Bayern Munich lacked any one outstanding individual.
Xabi Alonso’s Bayer Leverkusen enjoyed a historic campaign, the best season from a club outside the Champions League since that Liverpool team. A first-ever league title, the DFB Pokal, and a full season unbeaten in domestic competition.
Making it all the way through to the Europa League final wasn’t bad going either, although they weren’t quite able to remain invincible on all fronts with a shock 3-0 defeat to Atalanta in Dublin.
It’s truly been a team effort – from Granit Xhaka to Jeremie Frimpong to Victor Boniface – but homegrown wonderkid Wirtz is probably the closest thing they have to a bonafide star.
Unfortunately, the youngster’s off-colour performance (was he carrying a knock?) in the final was probably a hammer blow to his slim hopes of winning the Ballon d’Or. It was still an excellent campaign, but he’d have had to do something miraculously extraordinary in the Euro 2024 knockout stages to challenge the biggest names at Europe’s glamour clubs.
The 21-year-old has played a big part in Germany’s very bright start to Euro 2024. But we can’t look past one of his team-mates – a certain Real Madrid veteran – if the hosts do get their hands on the trophy.
7. Lautaro Martinez (↑1)
“I am on the same level as Kylian Mbappe, Erling Haaland, Harry Kane & Robert Lewandowski,” Martinez said towards the end of the season.
“I have nothing to envy, the numbers and the trophies say so. There are champions who have won fewer trophies than me.”
Big words, but he should be in a bullish mood after a career-best campaign – he won Serie A’s Capocannoniere for top scorer with 24 goals after firing Inter to the Scudetto.
But Inter’s underwhelming Champions League campaign, in which Martinez missed a decisive penalty in the shootout defeat to Atletico Madrid, surely scuppered any vague hopes of the Ballon d’Or.
He’s yet to start for Argentina at the Copa America, but he is the tournament’s top scorer after twice scoring off the bench. In an inverse of how things went at the World Cup, we can see him taking Julian Alvarez’s starting place as things progress.
You never know. If Martinez can get the Golden Boot and win the Copa America, he might re-enter the conversation as an outsider.
6. Harry Kane (↓1)
The likes of Messi, Cristiano, Benzema and Ronaldo Nazario all followed up the European Golden Shoe with the Ballon d’Or. Kane has that particular individual accolade for the first time in his career, but his trophy drought continues following Bayern’s Champions League semi-final defeat to Real Madrid.
We’d love to know what was going through his head when Thomas Tuchel subbed him off when Bayern were leading at the Bernabeu. He’d have been a leading contender had they been able to make it over the line and book a Der Klassiker rematch at Wembley.
The European Golden Shoe is one thing, but Kane now needs to captain England to Euros glory this summer if he’s to have any hope of winning this year’s Ballon d’Or.
Unfortunately for Kane, one of his England team-mates has already won the Champions League and is a long way ahead of him in Ballon d’Or contention. He’ll have to do something truly extraordinary individually – we’re thinking multiple hat-tricks and an all-timer performance in the final – to challenge Bellingham now.
The 30-year-old has scored for England in the group stages, but he’s looked a bit lethargic so far, hinting he’s still carrying an injury. He doesn’t look like he’s suddenly about to explode into life, but you never know.
5. Lionel Messi (↑1)
We’re accustomed to seeing megastars like David Beckham, Gareth Bale, David Villa and Zlatan Ibrahimovic play out their twilight years in Major League Soccer. But not since the days of Johan Cruyff, Franz Beckenbauer and Pele in the NASL could the United States boast such royalty.
Never before has MLS been blessed with a superstar that’s genuinely still among the best in the world. Messi is tearing it up with Inter Miami, notching goals and assists for fun, and having the time of his life out in the Florida sunshine.
As with his eternal rival Ronaldo at Al Nassr, whatever Messi achieves in Miami is unlikely to move the needle. But he claimed his record-extending eighth Ballon d’Or after moving to America, becoming the first player not signed to a European club to lift the prestigious award.
That was for his heroic role in Argentina’s 2022 World Cup triumph rather than anything he did at club level.
Argentina and Messi have started the Copa America in fine fettle. As ever, he’s been their best player as they’ve booked a quarter-final place with a game to spare. He’s yet to score, while a thigh issue could see him rested before the knockouts, but things are certainly looking good for Messi to lead the Albiceleste to a historic third successive major tournament triumph.
4. Kylian Mbappe (=)
Mbappe is regarded by many as the best player in the world, and that status certainly helps. Mbappe is finally officially a Madrid player and having Florentino Perez and vast swathes of the Spanish media behind him won’t hurt his cause by the time the voting rolls around.
He waved goodbye to his hometown club by winning yet another Ligue 1 title, as well as the French Cup in his final appearance. But PSG’s treble dreams were dashed in their Champions League defeat to Dortmund, while Mbappe’s failure to score in either leg has dealt a massive blow to his hopes of a first Ballon d’Or.
Really, after Madrid won the Champions League, we’d have Mbappe in a very distant fourth. He’s a long way off the top three as things stand.
He can still rekindle his cause by leading France to Euro 2024 glory. It’s been a weird start for France, who failed to top their group in a major tournament for the first time since 2012 and now have a very tough route to the final.
Mbappe is masked up and opened his European Championship account against Poland, but we’re still waiting for him to catch fire in Germany. Watch this space.
3. Toni Kroos (=)
Four of the last five Ballon d’Or winners not named Messi have been Madrid players. That’s surely set to continue in 2024.
Incredibly, no player born after 1990 has ever won the Ballon d’Or. We’re yet to see Gen Z come through and dominate quite like millennial icons Ronaldo and Messi (plus Benzema and Luka Modric).
Kroos could be the first, albeit he was only born four days into the 1990s and still firmly belongs to the last generation who are now gradually fading away. In fact, he could be the first Ballon d’Or winner to pick up the award after hanging up their boots.
There’s a ‘lifetime achievement’ element that could work in Kroos’ favour, a bit like Modric in 2018, Martin Scorsese’s Best Director Oscar for The Departed, or that time Ryan Giggs was named Premier League Player of the Year.
It’s difficult to think of many players who have gone out at the very, very top quite like Kroos, whose performances in the Champions League knockouts in particular prove he’s still among the very best midfielders in the world. If he can replicate that impact and help lead Germany to Euro 2024 glory on home soil, he might well become the frontrunner, having lifted another Champions League with Real as he says goodbye to the game.
Kroos has made a wonderful start to Euro 2024, making Germany tick, but he’ll have his work cut out if he’s to get his hands on the trophy, with Spain, Portugal and France all on their side of a very tough draw. If he can help guide Germany past Europe’s strongest, he might just become the new favourite. That’s a very big if, though.
2. Vinicius Junior (↓1)
Vinicius scored in the Champions League final and unlike Bellingham, really came alive in the latter knockout stages. He was absolutely outstanding against Manchester City, Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund.
The Brazilian was by some distance Madrid’s most dangerous attacker come spring when they sealed a La Liga & Champions League double. That’s so often what the Ballon d’Or comes down to – just look at the years it was lifted by Messi, Ronaldo and Benzema.
In a non-tournament year, Vinicius would surely already this year’s Ballon d’Or in the bag. But there’s still the Copa America and Euro 2024 to be concluded, and those will be fresher in the memory than the 2023-24 season come voting season.
Brazil are yet to find a way to get the very best out of the Real Madrid superstar, who was substituted with 20 minutes remaining in the Selecao’s opening 0-0 draw with Costa Rica.
“Vinicius Junior is one of our greats. Greatest hope in the attack. We were not finding a way through, so we were trying to find a solution. That is why we made a replacement,” explained Brazil boss Dorival Junior.
It’s still early days, but Brazil didn’t look like Copa America champions in the making. If they fail to win it, and Vinicius continues to struggle Stateside, an opportunity might well emerge for another international star to swoop in and challenge for this year’s Ballon d’Or.
1. Jude Bellingham (↑1)
“I’m not really too fussed about it [the Ballon d’Or]” Bellingham told reporters ahead of the Champions League final.
“I always felt that those awards were like for strikers and wingers, the flashy players. I know I can entertain the crowd but no one can do it like Vini. When he is at his best, he’s the best player in the world.”
He can be as humble as he likes, but he’s undoubtedly one of the major contenders.
You arguably have to go all the way back to Alfredo di Stefano to find a player that made this kind of instant impact in their debut season at Real Madrid. Which for the club famous for Galactico signings (Cristiano Ronaldo, Zinedine Zidane, Luis Figo to name a few) is quite ridiculous.
Bellingham ended the season as Los Blancos’ top scorer, notching as many goals as Barcelona’s main striker Robert Lewandowski, and was named La Liga’s Player of the Year, a season in which he scored injury-time match-winners home and away in Clasicos – something neither Messi nor Ronaldo ever did.
He wasn’t actually anywhere near his best in the big Champions League knockout matches, although he did assist Vinicius Junior in the final.
And after a bright start to Euro 2024 with a man-of-the-match display against Serbia, he’s since faded, looking tired and ineffective as England toiled to unconvincing draws against Slovenia and Denmark.
But as has happened so often in the Gareth Southgate era, England have a very forgiving route to the Euro 2024 final.
They’d avoid the strongest sides and tournament favourites (Germany, Spain, Portugal, France) until the Berlin final. Fate is smiling on Bellingham, who has a massive opportunity to cap off a wonderful season with a historic achievement with the Three Lions.
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